The history of telecommunications has been marked by major technological leaps that have altered our lives in profound ways. The next generation of connectivity may be the most consequential yet, as a convergence of related technologies propels 5G to the heart of a global digital revolution.
5G emergence, progress and future
When ITU first released its vision for 5G back in 2015, promoters envisioned a wireless technology that would deliver stratospheric speeds combined with exponentially higher bandwidth, much lower latency, and massive capacity.
It was largely accepted that 5G would be the game-changer, shaping a world where everything is connected, from watches to glasses to shoes. A world with a set of new services for consumers, like VR, AR, holograms, and connected vehicles would also represent a lucrative opportunity for carriers. 5G was also expected to redefine industry and, in turn, transform our lives.
While 5G is much faster than 4G, its game-changing potential is still not available for all. 5G was supposed to deliver 6-second HD movie downloads and seamless VR, yet the actual experience falls short, particularly in areas with patchy 5G coverage. Secondly, while it’s true that many new and exciting applications have emerged, they still aren’t available globally, even in areas with mature 5G networks. There is still, therefore, some way to go. The same is true on the industry side. At the end of 2021, 5G has delivered on its early promise in many sectors, although it’s still a work in progress in others.
The most notable achievement has been the remarkable speed at which 5G has been rolled out globally. Today, 176 commercial 5G networks are in operation worldwide, supported by more than 1.5 million base stations. This advanced infrastructure supports more than 500 million 5G users worldwide — 20 times more than 4G at the same stage of deployment.
This is in large part because of a highly effective and efficient 5G industry supply chain. Everything was ready in time for network deployment, from network equipment to devices to chips – a first for the mobile industry. And that’s especially true for terminals. More than 1,000 5G terminals are on the market, including CPEs and industry modules.
Carriers invested significantly to roll out 5G services, and examples of positive ROI are starting to emerge. The first movers — especially in China and South Korea — are seeing double-digit growth after deploying 5G. It is expected that other carriers to follow the profitability route as use cases rise.
Consumers have also seen significant improvements in user experience, especially speed, with an average 5G download speeds nine times faster than 4G. 5G is also powering new services, like VR applications and 360-degree broadcasting, which are already common in places like China and South Korea, and are increasingly seen in the Middle East.
Various mobile consumption habits are now accelerating globally, including all-video, all-HD, all-online, and all-social. Mobile HD video has emerged as the new norm in the past two years, replacing SD as the default video format for many people. In China, for example, HD video now accounts for 54% of traffic on 5G networks. There has been a sharp increase in wireless home broadband during the pandemic, with demand growing by about 20% globally.
The Middle East is an excellent test case for 5G with its sizeable installed base of 5G home broadband. Zain, for instance, has reported that the data traffic per user per month (DoU) for 5G fixed wireless access is 10 times the DoU for 4G, reaching about 10 GB per household per day.
In addition, a multitude of 5G applications for businesses are now on hand, with over 10,000 5GtoB projects in operation worldwide. We have made solid progress in manufacturing, mining, and ports, with 5G powering a smarter, safer, and more efficient work environment.
But the fact is, half of all 5GtoB projects are in China, and widespread adoption in other parts of the world remains a pipe dream. One of the major promises of 5G was to transform industries, and while we’ve made good progress, again, we still have a long way to go. One should not downplay the achievements we’ve made. However, we need an honest assessment of where we are to better trace the path forward and what is required to get there.
Convergence of cloud, AI & 5G
It’s important to consider that 5G is not developing in a bubble. There are rapid changes and advancements in the broader tech sector, consumer habits, and the overall business environment.
Cloud and AI, for instance, have been advancing at a rapid pace. Just a few short years ago, most companies weren’t convinced that cloud was the way forward. That’s no longer the case – 81% of organizations globally use cloud computing and cloud-based applications. AI is a significant driver behind this change because it helps organizations create more value with their data in the cloud. AI is being utilized in all sectors, and the number of enterprise users keeps growing.
At the same time, cloud and AI are driving demand for better connectivity, driving demand for 5G. It is imperative that we continuously improve network coverage and performance to meet these new demands. The pandemic has further accelerated digital transformation - by as much as seven years by some accounts.
In the end, digital technology is no longer playing a support role, and it is instead moving towards core production systems, for example, by enabling AI to speed up vaccine development. Moving forward, cloud and AI are must-haves for all enterprises. So while 5G isn’t the only technology needed for digital transformation, there will certainly be greater adoption of 5GtoB solutions as the overall ICT ecosystem matures, and this will create new opportunities for telecom service provides and others.
