According to a study conducted by Precedence Research, the global satellite communications (SATCOM) market value is projected to reach approximately USD 260.65 billion by 2034, indicating a valuable and robust ecosystem of satellite operators, innovators, and service providers.
In the age of unparalleled technological advancements in infrastructures, such as space satellites, we often overlook the unseen forces that disrupt global communication and connectivity.
Unbeknownst to most people, solar activities impact these infrastructures, threatening the stability of our digital world.
With artificial intelligence (AI) and satellite technology at the forefront, it is critical to prioritize cyber resilience to maintain interconnectedness. Operators must navigate ways for modern innovations to withstand any possible effects on communications and operations to ensure the resiliency of the digital world against the forces of nature.
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Navigating the Effects of Solar Storms on the Technological Landscape
Solar and geomagnetic storms are natural phenomena that can disrupt communications and damage satellites and digital infrastructures.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface, potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, and radio and satellite operations.
Highly energetic particles can penetrate spacecraft in-orbit, potentially damaging their materials and electronics, leading to loss of control and even failure.
Disturbances in radio communications can be generated by electromagnetic radiation, such as radio waves, X-rays, and ultraviolet (UV) light, as underscored by the European Space Agency (ESA).
According to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), telecommunication satellites are vulnerable to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These solar storms can have detrimental impacts, degrading solar panels, damaging navigation systems, and altering orbital paths.
Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, critically used by ships and aircraft, will also be affected, as they depend on the signals that penetrate the ionosphere. Industries that rely heavily on high-frequency radio airwaves and shortwave radio transmissions may also experience disruptions.
Internet service providers (ISPs) could go down, leaving millions disconnected from the rest of the world. Satellite-based telephone, internet, radio, and television services would also be disrupted, cutting off vital lines of communication and information.
Moreover, strong geomagnetic storms could affect submarine and fiber optic cable systems by producing induced voltages.
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Past Disruptive Space Weather Events
The infamous Carrington event, known as the largest geomagnetic storm in history, caused disruptions and fire in telegraph stations in 1859.
A powerful solar storm in 1972 reportedly caused the outage of American Telephone and Telegraph’s (AT&T) L4 coaxial cable system. The severity of the storm triggered the accidental detonation of the United States’ naval mines near Haiphong, Vietnam.
In 1989, a massive blackout for more than nine hours in Quebec, Canada, occurred after geomagnetic fluctuations damaged transformers and other critical equipment, leading to the collapse of the Hydro Quebec power grid. Additionally, enlarged voltages on the power supply of the new transatlantic telecommunications fiber-optic cable were recorded.
In 2000, China’s telecommunication services were also disrupted by a solar storm for almost 17 hours, with impacts reaching as far as Hong Kong and Haikou. The disturbance in shortwave radio services interfered with communication satellites and navigation systems.
In 2022, Elon Musk’s private aerospace company, SpaceX, lost 40 Starlink satellites to a geomagnetic storm, a day after the satellites’ launch. Despite putting the satellites into safe mode, enabling them to fly edge-on to minimize the drag, the storm instilled damage. These satellites were slated to establish high-speed internet networks, particularly in underserved areas.
In May 2024, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recorded one of the strongest solar storms to reach the Earth in twenty years. Multiple large solar flares and CMEs, producing clouds of charged particles and magnetic fields, stormed toward the Earth. Traveling at speeds of up to three million mph, the CMEs reached the Earth on May 10, causing a G5-rated geomagnetic storm—the highest level on the geomagnetic storm scale. These CMEs triggered a celestial show (aurora borealis), which became visible across different countries at low altitude levels. Notably, eight of the multiple solar flares were identified as X-class during this period, also known as the most powerful type.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), responsible for projecting the impacts of solar storms, immediately notified operators of power grids and commercial satellites, encouraging them to brace for the potential impact of the solar storm. Preliminary reports showed irregularities in the power grid, loss of high-frequency communications, and disruptions in the GPS.
In August, reports revealed that a severe G4-level geomagnetic storm struck Earth, triggered by a series of strong solar eruptions. As a result, NOAA issued warnings about the potential for more frequent and prolonged disruptions to GPS systems.
While solar storms have not directly impacted the Middle East, the region must be prepared for future catastrophic events. In recent years, the Middle East has been facing increasing challenges due to climate change and it is only a matter of time before the region’s tech sector will experience the wrath of nature.
According to NASA, the risk of geomagnetic storms and devastating effects on our society is increasing as we approach the peak of the sun’s 11-year activity cycle, which is expected to arrive in 2025.
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Cyber Resilience against Solar Storms in the Modern Tech Era
Between 2024 and 2025, the current solar cycle will peak, causing solar activities to become more frequent and intense.
According to ESA, two new very active solar regions have been sighted and will be closely monitored to contain the possible impact they may deliver to modern technology.
The advent of the latest technological innovations, including 5G and AI, may aid in developing technologies, such as advanced space weather forecast systems, which could predict solar activities ahead of time and mitigate their effects.
To facilitate cyber resilience against natural phenomena such as solar storms, operators must plan their preparations, detect disruptions, respond promptly, establish recovery, and adopt continuous improvement.
In 2023, an international team of researchers developed the Deep Learning Geomagnetic Perturbation (DAGGER)—a computer model that can rapidly and accurately predict geomagnetic disturbances 30 minutes before they transpire by analyzing solar wind data.
Using AI’s deep learning method, researchers can study the links between the solar wind and geomagnetic disruptions that affect modern technology. They can identify the relationships and behaviors observed at various ground stations across the globe with AI.
Notably, DAGGER’s computer code is open source, enabling it to be easily adopted by power grid operators, satellite controllers, and telecommunication companies, consequently aiding in predictive analytics that facilitate the implementation of robust space weather mitigation plans.
In 2023, the ITU made significant strides in global communications by updating the radio regulations supporting spectrum sharing and technological innovation. The treaty introduced new spectrum allocations, including broadband connectivity and observation for Earth and space. In addition, the treaty recognized the importance of space weather observation and the operation of its sensors to discern phenomena such as solar flares, solar radiation, and geomagnetic storms.
The ITU’s Deputy Secretary-General, Tomas Lamanauskas, emphasized the importance of camaraderie in safeguarding the world’s digital infrastructures during critical times. He underscored that the ITU will support countries aiming to strengthen their cybersecurity and develop national emergency telecom initiatives.
During the May 2024 solar storm, telecommunication companies, AT&T and T-Mobile, closely monitored the events. Their observations, luckily, did not foresee severe disruptions. Accurate forecasting of space weather events is crucial to telecommunications operators as it ensures their ability to mitigate the solar storms’ effects on their infrastructures.
On the other hand, Starlink’s SpaceX shared how their satellites faced heightened pressure during the crux of the storm. SpaceX ultimately reported on social media platform, X, that all Starlink satellites in-orbit had weathered the geomagnetic storm and remained healthy.
In 2022, scientists from Google confirmed that submarine data cables are safe from solar storms, highlighting the improvements made to submarine cable systems over the years to withstand the impacts of natural events.
Meanwhile, software engineering company, Wovenware, has been studying how computer vision services can be leveraged to reduce the impact of solar storms on telecommunication systems.
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Final Thoughts
As we continue to transcend boundaries in the field of innovation, we must not ignore the impacts of natural phenomena on our technology today.
With the advancements and growing dependency on technology, massive devastation awaits if a solar storm with the same magnitude as the Carrington event occurs today. These storms pose catastrophic risks to the global digital landscape, potentially disrupting decades of development.
It is only a matter of time before another massive solar activity hits the Earth, putting communications and operations at risk. International preparation, coordination, and action between the technology and telecommunications sectors must be observed to establish digital resilience against the destructive effects of the forces of nature.
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